Switch 2 Predicted as the Best Selling Next-Gen Console Despite Not Even Being Out Yet

Switch 2 Projected as Top-Selling Next-Gen Console

DFC Intelligence, a leading video game market research firm, predicts the Nintendo Switch 2 will dominate next-generation console sales, projecting sales of 15 to 17 million units in its first year. This forecast surpasses all competitors, solidifying the Switch 2's position as a market leader. Read on for a deeper dive into this exciting prediction.

Switch 2: The Clear Winner?

80 Million Units Projected by 2028

Image from Nintendo

DFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, declares the Nintendo Switch 2 the "clear winner" in the next-generation console race. Nintendo is poised to lead the console market, outpacing Microsoft and Sony. This projection is driven by the Switch 2's anticipated earlier release (rumored for 2025) and the relatively limited competition at launch. With these advantages, the Switch 2 is projected to sell 15-17 million units in 2025 and over 80 million units by 2028. The report even suggests that Nintendo might face manufacturing challenges due to high demand.

Image from Mario official Nintendo site

While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these projects appear to be in earlier stages of development. DFC Intelligence notes that these companies are expected to release new consoles by 2028. However, with a potential three-year head start (unless a surprise release occurs in 2026), the Switch 2 is likely to maintain its dominance. The report suggests that only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success. While a hypothetical "PS6" is mentioned as a potential contender, leveraging PlayStation's loyal fanbase and strong intellectual properties.

The enduring popularity of Nintendo and the Switch is undeniable. Circana (formerly NPD), reported that lifetime Switch sales in the US have surpassed those of the PlayStation 2. Mat Piscatella, executive director and analyst at Circana, shared on BlueSky: "With its 46.6 million units sold life-to-date, Switch now ranks 2nd in all-time units sold across all video game hardware platforms in the U.S., trailing only Nintendo DS." This achievement is particularly noteworthy given the Switch's reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.

A Bright Future for the Video Game Industry

DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive outlook for the video game industry. David Cole, founder and CEO of DFC Intelligence, states, "Over the past three decades, the video game industry has grown more than 20x, and after two years of slumping hardware and software sales, it’s poised to resume growing at a healthy rate through the end of the decade." He highlights 2025 as a pivotal year, anticipating a resurgence in consumer spending driven by new product releases.

Beyond the Switch 2, the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI, slated for a 2025 release, is expected to significantly boost overall video game sales. The industry's growth is projected to continue, with the global player base exceeding 4 billion by 2027. The rising popularity of "high-end gaming-on-the-go" and the continued growth of esports and gaming influencers are contributing factors to this positive forecast, driving increased hardware purchases across PC and consoles.